當出兵是用奸,不是有個仁義之名時,戰敗是必然。為甚麼?民心不向嘛。外媒有個分析,文題是:《We Never Learn》,文如下:
The pattern is always the same. We go to places we're not welcome, tell the public a confounding political problem can be solved militarily, and lie about our motives in occupying the country to boot. Then we pick a local civilian political authority to back that inevitably proves to be corrupt and repressive, increasing local antagonism toward the American presence.
In response to those increasing levels of antagonism, we then ramp up our financial, political, and military commitment to the mission, which in turn heightens the level of resistance, leading to greater losses in lives and treasure. As the cycle worsens, the government systematically accelerates the lies to the public about our level of“progress.”
Throughout, we make false assurances of security that are believed by significant numbers of local civilians, guaranteeing they will later either become refugees or targets for retribution as collaborators. Meanwhile, financial incentives for contractors, along with political disincentives to admission of failure, prolong the mission.
This all goes on for so long that the lies become institutionalized, believed not only by press contracted to deliver the propaganda(CBS's David Martin this weekend saying with a straight face,“Everybody is surprised by the speed of this collapse”was typical), but even by the bureaucrats who concocted the deceptions in the first place.
The look of genuine shock on the face of Tony Blinken this weekend as he jousted with Jake Tapper about Biden's comments from July should tell people around the world something important about the United States:in addition to all the other things about us that are dangerous, we lack self-knowledge.
Even deep inside the machine of American power, where everyone paying even a modicum of attention over the last twenty years should have known Kabul would fall in a heartbeat, they still believe their own legends. Which means this will happen again, and probably sooner rather than later.
中國無論為自己、為阿富汗,都應力促阿富汗的塔利班政權建立起個包容性的政府,不易的,但如能有小成,已夠做個辦,做跟「尾」狗,無好下場,鼓勵他們努力地取法其上,得乎其「中」,就十分好了。軟實力,是互利而來,不是靠錢、靠槍的。塔利班政權建立起包容性的政府,例如對女性人身自由有所放寬,看似不易的,但塔利班不似美國,They can learn。