雙學三子其中兩子昨天在終審法院首席法官馬道立席前申請保釋獲批, 有任何上訴成功的端倪嗎? 這案的新聞上了國際頻道, 除了非洲和南美洲, 我見到廣泛報導。申請上訴許可會在下月七日聽審, 到時我開始外遊, 未必有時間評論, 現在先評論, 其實是預測結果。預測事情有兩項, 其一, 會不會批出上訴許可;  其二, 若批出上訴許可, 最終能否推翻上訴庭改判的刑期。

終審法院批出保釋, 所持法律原則是甚麼? 由我講不如由法官講。終審法院常設法官霍兆剛在香港特別行政區政府訴余藹琪 一案申明原則:

Should bail pending the application for leave to appeal be granted in this case?

8. A single Permanent Judge of this Court has power under section 34 of the Ordinance[8]to grant bail pending an application for leave to appeal but this will generally only be exercised when two pre-conditions are met, namely: (i) there must be at least reasonable prospects of the Appeal Committee granting both leave to appeal to the Court of Final Appeal and bail pending such appeal; and (ii) there must be no real risk of absconding.[9]

沒棄保潛逃的風險這條件容易辦到, 這些被告一定不會跑, 別講他們跑不到那裏去, 自命為政治犯的人, 一定要坐牢才符合資格, 跑了就成鼠輩, 一點政治籌碼都沒有, 到時就沒有吸引力了。第一項條件反而是主要考慮, 即是有合理可能批出上訴許可。所以, 我第一個預測是11月7日上訴委員會3位法官會批出上訴許可。另一個批准保釋的理由是, 批出上訴許可後, 上訴正審排期需時, 到了正審3人的刑期也服完了。到了11月7日, 周永康也會提出保釋申請。

若果我這預測準確, 那麼上訴正審會成功嗎? 現在看不到申請理由, 如果是講「一罪兩審」, 就不應該會成功。但還有一個可能性, 就是若三子提出判刑上訴, 在罕有的情況下, 有可能獲批。為甚麼罕有, 因為終審法院聽審上訴, 主要是考慮「涉及具有重大而廣泛的重要性的法律論點」, 但以本案而言, 我相信提出判刑上訴也有可能成功。終審法院條例第37(2)條也有講:

(2)如終審法院在審理上訴時以某一判刑取代另一判刑...

另外, 在SHER ALI KHAN and HONG KONG SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGION FAMC 4/2006 一案, 當時署理首席法官包致金也講過:

8. Before me, the applicant asserted that he had not been working at the time of his arrest. He did however admit before me that he had used the identity card in question to avoid discovery of the fact of his overstaying. Therefore he did in that sense display it, doing so in order to continue and prolong his unlawful stay in Hong Kong. Moreover it can be said with some force that the total of 15 months’ imprisonment could in any event be justified on the basis that the sentence for overstaying could with justification have been made longer than three months. On top of all of that, an appeal against sentence to the Court of Final Appeal is a wholly exceptional course even when not out of time, and the applicant is considerably out of time.

以判刑而言, 我一直都覺得上訴庭改判得太重, 如果終院運用罕有會運用的權力去減刑, 我也覺得合理。