回應 : 2
政經唔正經
中俄合作新歷史
李耀偉
2012年6月18日
上兩篇文章才批評東方日報連續兩天「煲無米粥」,誰不知今期壹週刊更離譜,以秋前算賬「清剿」曾蔭權利益集團為主題,內容全部炒冷飯,一點獨家編採的資料也沒有。這幾天是英女皇登基六十週年,她是香港前宗主國元首,港人對英國皇室有興趣是自然不過的事,但這不竟是娛樂新聞,影響不了世界大局。港人被英美傳媒教化至深,世界都是西方主導的,卻其實世界秩序因歐美日等已發達國家債務問題惡化、敗壞而走向衰落。相反,亞洲諸國因自身努力及行政手段得宜,正在改變世界。三星的手機在量與質上迫得蘋果喘不過氣,中國在風電太陽能及電池車的發展速度及規模上遠超西方。中國正經歷着復興之際,再任俄羅斯總統的普京訪華,與胡總簽署了《關於進一步深化平等信任的中俄全面戰略協作夥伴關係的聯絡聲明》。而且胡總說雙方繼續將發展相互關係作為本國外交的優先方向。

我不厭其煩的把一大串字組成的協議列出,只想各位看清中俄關係已發展到歷史的新高度,而且超前於其他中美、中日、中國與東盟、及中歐關係。2008年美國出現了金融海嘯,其時美國很需要中國出資及合作來穩定大局,世界有指美中G2將主宰世界發展,但身為發展中國家的中國,其時並沒有昏了腦袋去接受這個位置。當美國選出了奧巴馬決定自伊拉克撤軍,集中阿富汗並成功誅殺拉登後,偏安一時的美國即在前年高調宣佈「重返亞洲」並圍繞中國組成戰略部署,軍事外更有在經濟商業上推動由美國主導的自由貿易區談判,拉攏傳統盟友外還把印度、越南及緬甸拉到自己棋局的有利一方。中美關係是世界上最重要的外交聯系,但美國人的本意是霸權永遠在我,世界主我主導。

可是,時不美與了。無論在意識型態及普世價值觀上如何主導人類,美國的經濟實力因債台高築而大不如前。今天中國與世界各國的貿易量超過了美國,成本高昂的美歐產品接不上亞非及美洲等需要。

中俄各項合作中有兩項新提上日程項目令歐美航空製造業很不舒服。六月一日俄報傳出中俄正商討以俄依留申1L-96為基礎發展長途廣體客機。中國的大飛機計劃在上世紀七十年代已造出運十四引擎百噸重的客機,但因為發動機技術追不上,最後放棄發展,而其時也,正是歐洲空中巴士的同步階段,中國延至前十年才重新大飛機計劃。

今年底中國自行研制的軍用200噸級四引擎運輸機將整體成型下線出廠,而2014年首架180-200座位的C919也將完工試驗。若中俄真能共同開發長途廣體客機的話,對空巴及波音將是很大的剌激。

另一項中俄合作將為Mi-26世界最大型直昇機開發後繼型號。在四川文川地震救災中,Mi-26表演了將整架推土機吊起的能力,中國西部土區極多用此機的機會,對開發川貴藏民事及軍事義意重大。
 
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1. JD 2012-06-19 16:23:03

Russo- Chinese cooperation is nothing new, back to the Cold War Period, they have been working together. However, this "Re-Cooperation" is the result of Traditional American Foreign Policy. After the downfall of the Soviet Union, the newly born "democratic" Russia actively looked for participation with the West, Russia proactively participated in many potential cooperation with the West, Russia even attended G7 without a formal invitation (eventually became G8 later). Since the declaration of WWII, the US foreign policy had certain target to oppose against. In WWII, the Axis, the Soviet Union and Communist Countries during the Cold War Period, (Well, I am not quite familiar with the American Foreign Policies in its Colonial and Post Colonial Period, so I don't want to make a general conclusion, wellcome feedback if there are any experts in these part of history. But I think the Americans definitely againist the British at the end of the Colonial Period, right? ^_^). There was a short period of time of confusion, but the US diplomats decided to continue their traditional way in the US foreign diplomacy.  On one hand, it seemed there are more cooperation with Russia, but on the other hand, the US expanded its power through different institutions, for examples, expanded and included former Eastern European States in the "sphere of influence" under the umbrella of NATO. The West, at the high participation of the US, has expanded it's missile network in Europe and more missile spots were planted the Eastern Europe. Russia has demanded for more cooperation at this aspect but got a cold shoulder from the US. Think it that way, how come there is no further integration in the Euro Zone or any form of free trade agreement between Russia and the West? Russia is a resourceful country... why?

Soon, after all these little clues at different aspects, the Russians understand that the US will never treat them as a partner like the US treated the British... Well, some may argue that Russia is not a truly democratic country, with certain control over election and the US should not treat them as a working partner. But there are many countries have problems in their elections but the US still have a close bonding with them. When you look at the Philippines at Marco's period, many corruptions and problems in the election, but the bonding remains. So, I don't believe that's the true reasons.

China is facing a similar situation to Russians' in the foreign diplomatic scenario. The US is pushing those "cold shoulders" together. I believe if China and Russia can choose, they would prefer further cooperation with the US, but the US has no interest at all. So, after all these years, the Russians and the Chinese are joining together because they understand, the West will never truely acknowledge them. No matter how much their political systems changed.

There is only one situation that the US will cooperate with China and one scenario only:

When China is willing to become the subordinate of the US.

Sorry, a subordinate, not even the 51st star on the flag.

2. JD 2012-06-19 16:29:08

Sorry, writing so many issues but missed the most important thing.


My point is: the traditional way of the US foreign policy is to have a designated enermy. The whole American Foreign Policy was under this format since WWII. Without a designated enermy, the US has no clue to work on its foreign policy. As Russia became a democratic country, there was a little period of confusion because the US had lost its designated enermy. So, following its tradition, the US decided to continue its path and continue to treat Russia as the designated enermy or "rival" if you prefer.

Can't believe I missed the most important thing... haha~!

 
 

 

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