I cannot agree your comments about HK flat prices.

How can you suggest investor to put money or its savings for their rest of life ?

Put in to Fixed deposit (HK dollar) can earn about 0.1% to 1%, put into stock market, it is still very jump (or fluctuations) ?, put to foreign currency, I cannot find which one can maintain the principal dollar amount ? put to MPF or Funds, you cannot have your own control about your money.

So, there is only one option to put into house and you can let it to rent to earn interest.  Although you can say that house price can decrease and make you lose money, but remember one interesting thing about HK is NOT enough land or house for so many people (around 7 million).   Of course, you can live to China or other countries if you wish.

Also, do you heard before that there is a resevse mortgage for house in oversea countries ? Of course, HK do not have it yet but I think long time there is a possibility.   Own a house can maintain your wealth, why can you say that it can make you lose money or you lose before ?

P

 

 

 

Miss / Mr. Investor.

  作者的意見是：先看清楚樓價的走勢和衡量自身的實力，才作出買樓的決策。

  我認為作者不是指買樓會Lose money.

 

in HK, from the Top 1 to Top 100 rich guys are related to property business

do you think its stupid to refuse own a flat ??

Buy or sell depends on a number of factors & house price will go up or down is also complex. When economy prospers, land turns valuable as demand rises, however in recession & high unemployment situations, people just can't afford to spend so price should fall.  In HK, real estate companies & govt line up to restrict the supply so we all pay unresonable prices. This makes people think invest in house will always win. That's why so many empty flats are in the market expecting price to go up. It is not uncommon that you can still buy brand new flats (never occupied) that are over 5 years OLD! HK investors are just too wealthy & don't care to make use of their funds. It has been a easy come & easy go situation over the past years but it is changing.  Even the biggest banks are now short of cash.  The alarm has gone off, hold or sell will depands on your cash position. Good Luck!

 I totally agree with the opinion of  "a reader". 

He / she said: " In HK, real estate companies & govt line up to restrict the supply so we all pay unresonable prices. This makes people think invest in house will always win."

Dear 腦動力,

What is about "female teacher" mentioned in your response no.5 ?

Thanks

腦動力,

小弟英文比較差, "the reflection of Mr. Denny Wong" 即是什麽意思？煩請指教。

To : 一百萬零一夜

I totally agree your comments.   In HK situation, although you are highly educated, Bachelor/Master/Doctor that will NOT ensure that you can earn more (proportinally) or become rich  except you are professional in speciality like medical doctor, .. etc.

So Why only business man related to property can become rich ?  If all other people (except 一百萬零一夜) can answer this question (not a silly question but a real situation question), I can then agree with your other comments.

Morever, What do you exactly mean that "real estate companies & govt line up to restrict the supply "

this time I agree that Govt must line up to restrict the supply, otherwise, all house owners will be in a big trouble and also the govt have big trouble.

In fact, I can only say that if you are not a house owner now, you will intend the house price to decrease so that you can buy it at lower price !

Do you agree with my last comment ? I think that 一百萬零一夜 will agree.

 

To : a reader

First of all, I am not a businessman and I am not very rich.

I agree your statement "Even the biggest banks are now short of cash.  The alarm has gone off, hold or sell will depands on your cash position. "

However, can you or anyone tell how can you invest your money have NO risk at all ? I think even the Economist may not reply this question.

 

  

TO :腦動力

I think that you are NOT smart actually.  If people argee your comments, you said them "smart"

Do you mean that other people do not agree you are stupid at all ?  You are not quite polite. 

Do you mind to tell me what is your educational background ?

 

TO : a reader

What do you exactly mean that "real estate companies & govt line up to restrict the supply "

this time I agree that Govt must line up to restrict the supply, otherwise, all house owners will be in a big trouble and also the govt have big trouble.

In fact, I can only say that if you are not a house owner now, you will intend the house price to decrease so that you can buy it at lower price !

 

TO : 荃灣人

I think your English is good or OK.

Anyway, I think that 腦動力 just want to ask somebody is actually the "Mr Denny Wong?"

I also cannot catch its meaning ! There may be somethings that behind us !!

 

TO : 路人甲

I just want to know that do you lost money with house before ?

If you answer is yes, I can "agree" you.  Otherwise, I still think that you are sincere that you may try to buy house at lower price at all !

Also, can you tell me which kind of investment will NOT make you to lose money (fixed deposit ?! please mind the inflation rate or the currency value getting down) ?

 

To : Investor

好心唔好再用英文發言啦，grammar 又錯、preposition 又錯。

假洋鬼子！

唔通用中文又唔掂？

To : Investor

作為母語以外的第二語言英文，差一點完全不是問題，只要表達了意見便可。

但在一個中文網頁，閱讀的對象是華人，為何不用母語，而要用錯爛的英語唬人？

用英文發言有以下幾個可能：

1.　唔識打中文，又冇手寫筆；

2.　中文程度欠佳，識睇唔識寫，即係睇得明，但又唔多識用文字表達，好多ABC都有咁嘅問題；

3.　唔喺屋企，去咗pacific coffee之類地方，部腦可能冇中文輸入法，或者有倉頡冇速成，所以迫住打英文；

4.　鍾意英文多過中文；

5.　習慣用英文；

6.　如果人地打開英文，好自然都用英文答訕囉；

7.　用英文隱藏身份，因為打中文易俾人睇出風格；

8,　崇洋...

Mr / Mrs/ Miss Investor,

  如果你是華人，我們不妨以中文溝通吧！

  首先，每個人對未來樓市的走勢會持不同的意見，沒有完全的對與錯，大家只是在一個平台上交流意見而已。

   本人是看淡未來樓市，看淡多少，本人不是專家，更不是神仙，所以我沒有資格說出任何數字。當然，遇到與本人持相同意見的人仕發表意見，本人有機會也會加以表達讚成之意。

   其次，你不需要問任何一個人，他是否要在未來買樓，或是曾經在樓市出現過損手。因為如果一個人在言兩個問題上，都答你「是」。那麼你或許會由推算他，是因為某某原因是希望樓價下調。

   正如你去問一個地產發展商，他會告訴你他真正對樓市的看法嗎？

   賣花讚花香.... 等等這些，我相信你都會明白的。

  最後，我要重申，買樓沒有人是神仙，大前提一定看個人的實力。

  

  

 

May be the following could help some of you:

1. Holding cash don't mean you lost money even when interest rate is zero & inflation is high. Your money is still there.

2. Inflation means prices are going up, so you buy high first but can you also sell even higher? 

Holding money won't cost you much but mis-invest may hurt or even kill.  To fight inflaction is not a sensible excuse to make an investment decision.

各位網友：

多謝大家的留言，現對我的個人意見作出一些延續，回應各位網友的查詢。

致： Investor和一百萬零一夜

我同意置業是一種相對地比較安全和有效的投資工具，的而且確香港的樓市神話創造了很多超級富翁，他們當中有些是眼光獨到，有些是僥倖，無論如何，他們的成功都有著一個共通點，就是在適當的時候作出正確的決定－－低買高賣。可能部份人覺得現時樓市經已得到頗大的調整，正部署入市的行動，這篇文章只是想提醒大家注意今次海嘯的強勁威力，我認為連大笨象匯豐的股價都可以插水再插水，樓市亦可能出現相類似的現象，千萬別視神話為理所當然，必然發生的事情，時機錯誤的入市決定可以帶來難堪的困局。

致：圓圓和荃灣人

文章中提及的女老師，令我聯想到王文彥先生。女老師因為向學生拆穿了聖誕老人的神話，引起家長們不滿而被眾人刁難；王先生由於發表了一些利淡樓市的意見，自此經常被業界部份人士及新聞界標籤，如我文中所言：「他們對香港樓市神話的忠誠和崇拜，根植於普遍人認為樓市發展帶動香港經濟繁榮的高度信任，所以大家會致力維護這個樓市神話，不容許受到褻瀆。」，「我們會把拆穿神話的人視為叛徒，表現憤怒，合力排斥。」，這種圍剿現象，讓我聞到一陣陣帶有政治報復的味道。

To : 腦動力

I think that your comments for this statement is not good for Hong Kong people

"我認為連大笨象匯豐的股價都可以插水再插水，樓市亦可能出現相類似的現象"

1) if HSBC stock prices is not good, it does not mean that HK economy will drop

(although some people think like that), do not forget China will help HK...

2) Do you work in HSBC before ?  do you know why they success before and becomes bad now ?

    I know because I worked for HSBC before.

3) How can you make the judgement that HSBC prices can related to HK flat prices ?

    Of course, it is not equal ! I suggest you to do more data analysis before saying.

 

TO : 地產界局外人

If you think that your English is good, why don't you type English ?

Do you think that I can type English with typing mistakes only.  You are just a person to blame people inpolitely or talking anything else..  Waste my times...

 

Yes, I really

習慣用英文

the property of HK are not totally related to outsider economic, its related to our needs, our confidence, and also china

you can see outsider economic are very bad now but do you think china will follow ?? also very bad in coming years ??

i am living in HK and work in HK and i do have much confidence of HK

HK still a good place for much overseas companies, very low tax rate... etc

i dont think HK property will drop too much, example 30% on normal estate, but maybe will drop around 10-20% on normal estate, and drop 30% on luxury flats

the rent will not fall too much due to everybody need to live, and some waiting chance for buy flats when cheap and they can afford, and do you think HK people like to sleep on the street ??

so many years in our HK history is... already so many people saying the flats are expensive but still going up in the past 40 years and until now... the trend is still going up

unless HK will suddenly lost 1-2 Million people, otherwise please explain why the demand will less ??

the point for you to plan & decide buy a flat or not are :

1) your need and your family
2) your effort
3) you want always rent a flat and wait the rent increase suddenly ??

4) the price is attractive or not ??

honestly if you can afford, you will refuse to have your own flat ??

in fact, i am waiting to have my own flat, to live with my family, rather than always rent a flat, so i am waiting a chance, a better price to have it

 

of course HK is facing some bad economic, but i dont think this will last very long time

To Investor:

你肯定係有錢就身痕ｄ人，家陣時勢，CASH is KING!家陣ｄ錢唔投資等於自動增值，你個腦袋唔好停留係８個月之前，將ｄ錢亂咁放都有賺嘅心態。　

To : 都市閒情

I am not a businessman. If you don't care your wealth, how can you ensure your rest of life can be better ?

I think that no one will be a foolish to make them no money at all when they are old.  Of course, you can keep all money in bank by fixed deposit but I can sure that you will be very disappointed after several years when the flat prices are higher and even the economy is better.

同意一百萬零一夜

I am living in HK and work in HK and I do have much confidence of China

大陸可以保八, 香港唔會差得去那裡.

Agree with investor.

I don't have house in HK but I am now considering to buy one and I think it is already a very good price now.

Due to abnormal low interest rate, I can forsee a very high inflation is coming in near future.

Holding cash is now the way to survive.

I will buy addtional house everytime if the price drop 5% more. (with 40% deposit).

I think it is a very good chance now.

 

YC, Thank you very much for your support.

Again, Buy house at your safe level and you will become rich later according to my experience.

You seems that you are smart in Economic.  I also think that the mortgage interest rate is abnormally low now !

 

往日的樓市神話, 或樓神, 將會(或已變成)樓市笨蛋.....其原因係:

1. 如果唔係一炮過, 100萬樓(9成按, 4.5%), 利息全期已經=60萬. 一買樓, 先預期蝕60%.
2. 買賣代理佣金, 稅, 加起來3-5%樓價, 無走雞.
3. 最優惠利率 p, 由銀行話事, 加就加....bound 你 20年.
4. 遇上壞鄰居, 就更..
5. 變現困難, 你試下依家市價放樓, 都幾難沽出.
6. 仲有, 睇睇香港發展商, 縮水, 個別低成本, 每次什麼時候賣樓都係大賺..賺邊個錢 ?? 買家.
7. 香港發展已經過左高峰, 來緊10, 20, 30年, 變成老人福利社會, 何來增長?
8. 中央已指令, 香港來緊融入珠三角, 但港樓現價平均貴人地5-10倍. 人工差距年年收窄.

TO : 中下游

Naive again ! Please refer to Mr. Wan saying.  China will help HK and Macau.

是呀, 中國會幫香港, 我們不用建設只管投機炒賣, 把香港樓市神話延續, 把樓價推上十萬元呎, 成為世界之最, 可以驕傲地說, 我們是世界第一 ; 濃了怎麼辦? 不用怕, 我們有中國幫忙, 下次炒到更高位(廿萬元呎)賺回.

請各位網友或有識之士, 唔好再回應哥位自稱 Investor 的人 . . . . . .

呢條友仔玩晒分身, 留言左唔夠5分鐘, 總會有第二或第三條友留言, 仲要係咁巧會, 講晒英文添.

其實佢根本想o係度搗亂(自發性/ 唔知受邊個指示), 再者, 佢好大機會只係學生哥, 可能o係度做緊佢一直想做o既  "人性實驗", 理用網絡自由, 亂up 廿四, 想睇下我地讀者卑乜反應佢, 或者點樣回應佢o既無聊提問.

我推理, 佢根本只係想實驗一下, 我地讀者會唔會出現意見不合 "鬼打鬼" 的情況, 

Investor 根本係超幼稚的學生仔...... 咁鐘意玩大眾心理, 不如去做市場調查啦

TO : 搞笑

If you think I am not investor and only a student, please reply me what is stochastic model first ?

At least I think you have to be Bachelor degree Year 2 or Year 3 student major in Statistics/Operation Research or Finance can answer this question !  You are too naive.

If I am a student, why just want such a lot of time here and do not studying ?

Instead, you are just somebody to pretend others to say bad things about property market, read more news, more people go out to see houses !   Read more books or news if you are a student !

 

TO : 一笑

I think China must maintain Hong Kong economy and flat prices will be stable!  Thanks.

 

TO : 搞笑

If you say that the following statement must be true

"你睇問題唔夠宏觀, 學人拋書包", please read newspaper today that there are increased no. of persons go out to buy house, show flats, etc.

Do you think that only the logistic business reflects the economic conditions ?  

True investor, 你真的天真可愛兼幼稚.相信2008年2月,長實散貨日出康城首都,你至今仍未吸取教訓.連南豐都加入散貨行動,後市可想而知.南豐係出名"唧牙膏"賣樓的發展商,如佢看好後市,佢大可以等兩年再賣都唔怕,南豐早有前科可監,唔到價唔賣.可以話,南豐係所有發展商最後一道把關的一個,如果佢都加入散貨,已可確認,所有發展商已睇淡香港後市.

你似乎唔係咁了解物業市場,所以少說話為妙,你亦唔了解咁多間發展商的性格,這也難怪,你連呢d地產市道"常識"都唔曉,仲講樓市點升點升,仲夠膽批評人地唔識睇市,你訓醒未?

發展商已吸緊市場餘下資金,趁最後一次有火的機會打埋最後一柄鐵,可憐小市民,誤信分析家,聽信無知小輩例如True investor/Investor所言,陪呢d對樓市唔了解的人癲,想唔扒街都幾難.

True investor："你睇問題唔夠宏觀, 學人拋書包", please read newspaper today that there are increased no. of persons go out to buy house, show flats, etc.

你似乎無學過行為學,記得上年"半山一號""御龍山"開售時,本來打算遲些才買樓哥班人,都受市場氣氛影響,見人"掃貨"自己又買埋一份,御龍山輸過千萬的大炒家大有人在.

 increased no. of persons go out to buy house/show flats ??? 呢班 persons ,未就係無乜思維水平,對經濟無危機感的人囉.

不過咁都好,無佢地,地產佬食蕉,發展商仲邊可以在全球衰退下賣樓賺錢?中國張五常亦認為,美國已經蕭條,只係大蕭定小蕭,這顯示,中國的美債,已經見財化水,溫總仲要出口術, "挽救市場信心" 的背後動機,並唔係你呢D智慧水平既人會識睇,難怪難怪,睇問題唔夠宏觀,只識睇最近哥兩三個禮拜數據,跟住話一D洞悉趨勢既人唔岩......

TO : 搞笑

Although you may say that Mr. Lee is the super rich guy in Hong Kong, he may not be the only guy to know the HK property market.

Yes, you can say that the guys bought 半山一號" or "御龍山" has a high risk to lose money but remember that the guy cannot be able to tolerate the mortgage loan at least I think.

However, you can also just watch the negative side for those guys to lose money but there are people to buy house to earn money ! Of course, no one can sure that you can earn money if you have houses.

Remember that there are the timing which is the most important factor to determine whether you earn or lose money. Of course, the location of the house can also affect whether you win or lose.

I can only say that the timing for Mr. Lee to sell their flats is good and the guys to buy is bad. As a whole, experience for the timing to buy is very important. For instance, when you buy house in SARS, high probability to win whether than lose.  Also, majority people tends to buy house when the house prices are expensive.  Only minority people are smart enough to buy house when the house prices are reasonable or cheaper.

By the way, no one have the golden rule to be sure win that I expect ! Also, don't ask me.

TO : 搞笑

Don't always quote Mr. Lee's flat example. Do you know what is the character of Mr. Lee ? He is a person to do more analysis at least I think. 

Please keep an eye on those first hand buyer for the flats near SARS (e.g Tseung Kwan O Plaza, Residence Oasis) have many winner to earn money. 

Of course, I cannot say any flats are sure win or lose !

有乜咁好拗？

無論你係唔係神, 有無能力唱好或唱衰個樓市, 直至今日, 市場依家已經係有訊息出來將會係樓市是負面, 即是會下調, 何必去爭議應該繼續上或且會下調.

維園阿伯都會知道點去分析樓市, 按照依家經濟環境來睇, 無好條件出現, 想升都好難啦, 個個都失業, 無錢又如何去供樓? 樓市有幾好條件, 市民又何來有穩定的收入去供樓, 銀行放水, 市民都條件去申請借貸, 以及無錢供錢. 除非政府開放到無錢供樓的市民, 有政府包底或且市民唔須要上身, 一定可以帶旺樓市, 政府快d 考慮下.

 

 

 

樓市邊緣人, at least today news about HK flat prices becomes more positive la!

樓市邊緣人, if you lose money after you buy some stocks, you can go to ask the government for the money.   No way of course, so don't say it when you add in your comments.  It is not logical.

True Invesor :

我發表""叫政府開放到無錢供樓的市民, 有政府包底或且市民唔須要上身, 一定可以帶旺樓市, 政府快d 考慮下"". 雖然依家社會可能仲未可以接受, 但係呢個 idea 是美國房地產市場所用緊的方法, 亦都曾經有xx地產 的龍頭人物提及此方法, 利用樓市重拾市民對經濟信心, 願意再去花錢, 經濟好轉, 代表市民有工作做, 其實亦係有一定道理, 係咪 d 人接受與否, 又是另一回事, 呢個係發表個人意見的討論區, 如果你發表 "" if you lose money after you buy some stocks, you can go to ask the government for the money.   No way of course, It is not logical. 就無問題, 但你唔應該去發表 "" so don't say it when you add in your comments""  叫人唔好發表意見,  你要檢討下啦, 你係咪唔想經濟快 d 好轉?  居心何在?  

樓市邊緣人, at least I think HK government will not follow your suggestion but US government that I don't know.

HK government need us to join MPF, plastic bag tax and thus I don't think HK government will do so.

I don't mean that you cannot say your comments but it's better no need to say because our HK government is not so responsible with your suggestion.

經濟快 d 好轉 must be good for me and everyone also.  No need to say.

香港樓價在07年中比現在低 當時還未有海嘯  現在大家話樓市差比起早兩年前還高出一成多  所以話香港人要買樓不一定要睇世界經濟  而是看自己的目前需要  我都係覺得今年樓價一定會升一成半  以09年二月數字來做對比

一場樓市暴風雨正在襲擊我們，這是無法否定或遮蓋的事實 <<<<<<<<< 聶某agree !!!

想問腦動力呢,香港啲地產發展商有冇機會破產?

香港啲地產發展商實力雄厚 <<<<<<<<< 聶某2號agree !!!

時光倒流一年

雷曼兄弟有冇機會破產?

AIG有冇機會破產?

花旗銀行有冇機會破產?

美國銀行有冇機會破產?

通用汽車有冇機會破產?

答案是冇!

地產發展商均來集團已破產

CENTURY21控股集團(1003),為提升競爭力,晤接受置業18任何一手OR二手合作.請各加盟商注意!